If in the future ten years, smokers replace traditional cigarette with electronic cigarette, over 6.6 million smokers will have a much longer life expectancy, calculated by George Town Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center. If smokers are successfully encouraged to use electronic cigarette by the policy, then the life expectancy can be increased by 87 million years totally.

This study was published on Tobacco Control. It built the first digital model of how electronic cigarette replacing traditional tobacco will improve public health. This model aims at “supporting and encouraging policy of using electronic cigarette to gain more life expectancy.” said the original writer of this thesis, David Levy, who is an oncology professor in Lombardy University in George Town.

Leading 10 team members, Levy studied the harm of electronic cigarette to human health, variables including teenager acceptable daily intake and adult withdrawal rate.

On this premise of persisting in promoting the policy of electronic cigarette, theoretical model predicts two situations, one is optimistic and the other one is pessimistic. The key point to lead the direction of the future is that how heavy the harm of electronic cigarette is when compared with traditional tobacco.

In pessimistic situation, among the previous smokers, 1.6 million people will gain 20.8 million years life expectancy in total. However, in optimistic situation, 6.6 million smokers will start to use electronic cigarette. Their total life expectancy will be 86.7 million more than that at the beginning.

“In addition, it will produce huge benefit of public health, including decreasing the diseases and disabling factors of smokers, relieving ache and pain, and reducing the chance of inhaling secondary smoke.”said Levy. “Even the worst analyst shows that when making comparison of the life expectancy of smokers, the nicotine they inhale from electronic cigarette is even better than the harmful matters they inhale from tobacco.”

Levy said, the research result maybe helpful for the ministry of health and public health community to promote their protocol of all-round tobacco prohibition which have been appealed for several years.

He said: “The report of American Ministry of Health in 2014 formulates the final strategy of controlling national tobacco epidemic diseases, but except for the current tobacco controlling policies, there is no other policy.”

These policies include improving cigarette tax, providing non-smoke public areas, smoke-free advocate by media, encouragement of smoking cessation treatment and restraint of tobacco advertisement. 

“Though these policies are effective as a whole, because in the past 50 years, smoking rate has decreased generally, but its influence are comparatively slow.”said Levy.

He pointed out, as the latest research (with sufficient evidence) of using electronic cigarette showed, using electronic cigarette can effectively help smokers to give up tobacco.

“The old policy needs to be supplemented to encourage smokers to replace the lethal tobacco with electronic cigarette”, said Levy. “In summary, these policies and the articles regarding the prohibition of tobacco can greatly reduce the huge damage caused by smoking.”

Levy also said:“FDA specialist Gottlieb put forward a program action about reducing the content of nicotine in tobacco to lower its damage to nearly the same level as that of electronic cigarette. These methods are absolutely right. We know very few about the policy for lowering the content of nicotine, but so far, all the evidence show that such action is very hopeful, especially if it can successfully encourage smokers to use electronic cigarettes.”